Tail Risk of an Orange Swan Event?

By Gavin Serkin | 1 May 2017
Gavin Serkin
United Kingdom (UK)

OnFrontiers Editorial Director and a seasoned expert in everything to do with media in frontier and emerging markets

Gavin hosts OnFrontiers’ #ExpertChat series, which connects emerging market leaders to audiences in live online discussions. He previously led the Eme...

Blog author Gavin Serkin is the Editorial Director for OnFrontiers and the Founder and Managing Editor of the Frontier Funds Consultancy.

By Gavin Serkin

In the tradition of emerging markets soothsayers, Ruchir Sharma has a knack for catchy acronyms. But unlike Jim O’Neill, whose famous BRICs grouping identified the world’s one-time go-go economies, Sharma delivers a far more sobering message in his four D’s: Depopulation, deleveraging, deglobalization and de-democratization. These are trends that will be a noose around the neck of global growth.

For now, Sharma’s message is falling on deaf ears on Wall Street and Washington. Markets have been rallying in the US and across emerging and frontier markets throughout Donald Trump’s first hundred days as President.

In our #ExpertChat online discussion tomorrow, we’ll be asking Sharma for his take on the underlying risks from the Trump presidency, and whether the “orange swan event,” as it was described before last year’s US election, been exaggerated or overlooked?

The discussion is online this Tuesday (May 2) at 11:30am in New York / 4:30pm in London. Just click on this link to register and don’t forget to post your questions.

Some of your questions so far:

  • Tail risks of the “Orange Swan” event: Are the dangers represented Trump’s presidency being overlooked?
  • Relative trends: Trump Vs. the commodities recovery Vs. Fed rate increases Vs. the French elections?
  • Brexit impact: What de-globalization looks like?
  • Wider implications: How the Trump presidency is impacting foreign aid and foreign direct investment in developing countries
  • Relative value: Opportunities and risks in various emerging and frontier markets
  • D’s for discord: De-population? Working age populations are booming in Nigeria and elsewhere in Africa
  • Governance vulnerability: How to protect investments against political, legal and regulatory risks
  • Climate change: The risks for emerging markets
  • Economic cooperation: The effects of joint ventures such as within maritime infrastructure

Join us on Tuesday 2nd May, at 11:30am EST

ONFRONTIERS LIVE DISCUSSION

REGISTER

Coming next on OnFrontiers #ExpertChat live discussions:

May 16

We’re at African Utility Week, an event that draws 7,000 people to Cape Town for three days of discussions on the future of African energy and water. Our panel will include:

  • Chris Trimble, World Bank Senior Energy Specialist
  • Mamadou Biteye, Rockefeller Foundation Managing Director for Africa
  • Cathy Oxby, Africa GreenCo Commercial Director

REGISTER

Who? Ruchir Sharma, Head of Emerging Markets & Chief Global Strategist at Morgan Stanley Investment Management
What? Half-hour live discussion
Why? Discover the outlook for emerging and frontier markets globally from the investor described on Barron’s front page as “Wall Street’s new global thinker”

When? Tuesday 2nd May

11:30am-noon in NYC

4:30pm-5 in London

Where? Your computer
How? Register here
OnFrontiers Editorial Director and a seasoned expert in everything to do with media in frontier and emerging markets
United Kingdom (UK)
Editorial Director, OnFrontiers

Gavin hosts OnFrontiers’ #ExpertChat series, which connects emerging market leaders to audiences in live online discussions. He previously led the Emerging Markets news team for Bloomberg. He has been recognized by the Society of American Business Editors & Writers and the Society of Professional Journalists. Gavin wrote "Frontier: Exploring the Top Ten Emerging Markets of Tomorrow" and has been a commentator on frontier markets for two decades. He also manages Frontier Funds Consultancy.